UN 0701 – Engineering Risk and Reliability

2020 Course  – 

2020 Course Information –

The first session for Spring 2020 will be held on May 9 & 10 (Sat/Sun) via WebEx. The start time for the first day is 9:00 am.

Please review the accompanying tutorial if you are not familiar with MS-Excel.

For the most up-to-date Course Material and Information go to http://www.civil.uwaterloo.ca/watrisk/un0701.html

Announcements

Recordings – https://mcmaster.webex.com/

Course Description

This course presents a broad treatment of the subject of engineering decision, risk, and reliability. Emphasis is on

1. the modelling of engineering problems and evaluation of systems performance under conditions of uncertainty;
2. risk-based approach to life-cycle management of engineering systems;
3. systematic development of design criteria, explicitly taking into account the significance of uncertainty; and
4. logical framework for risk assessment and risk-benefit tradeoffs in decision making.

The necessary mathematical concepts are developed in the context of engineering problems. The main topics of discussion are: probability theory, statistical data analysis, component and system reliability concepts, time-dependent reliability analysis, computational methods, life-cycle optimization models and risk management in public policy.

Course Schedule

UN 701 Course Outline 2020

Course Notes

• Risk and Reliability – Basic Concepts
• Data Analysis
• Distributions of Random Variables
• Common Probability Distributions

• Statistical Estimation – Distribution Parameters
• Classical Reliability Theory
• Lifetime Data Analysis

Module 2 – June 6 & 7, 2020

• Multivariate Distributions and Correlation
• Functions of Random Variables
• Monte Carlo Simulation
• Probabilistic Design

Module 3 – June 20 & 21, 2020

• Reliability of Repairable Systems
• Unavailability Analysis
• Degradation Modelling
• Confidence Intervals_R1
• Bayesian Probability
• Bayesian Reliability Analysis
• Uncertainty Analysis

Module 4 – July 18 & 19, 2020

• Overview of PSA
• System Reliability Analysis
• Probabilistic Failure Models
• Fault Tree Analysis
• Common Cause Failure (CCF) Analysis
• Event Tree Analysis
• Reliability and Risk Significance
• Regression Analysis
• Case Study 1 – Valves Reliability

Appendix

• Probability Rules
• Gallery of Distributions

Additional Information

Please download the following Excel data files to your laptop, memory stick, etc. to be used in the in-class exercises.

data1.xls (69 Kb)
data2.xls (112 Kb)
data3.xls (36 Kb)

References

The main reference for the course will be the lecture notes. Additional references for the course are as follows:

• Any Probability and Statistics textbook used in an engineering program (typically at second year level).
• Ang, A.H-S. and W.H. Tang. 2006. Probability Concepts in Engineering: Emphasis on Applications to Civil and Environmental Engineering. John Wiley & Sons, New York.
• Benjamin, J.R. and C.A. Cornell. 1970. Probability, Statistics, and Decision for Civil Engineers. McGraw-Hill, New York.
• Fullwood, R.R. and R.E. Hall. 1988. Probabilistic Risk Assessment in the Nuclear Power Industry: Fundamentals & Applications. Pergamon Press, Oxford.
• McCormick, N.J. 1981. Reliability and Risk Analysis: Methods and Nuclear Power Applications. Academic Press, New York.
• Melchers, R.E. 1999. Structural Reliability Analysis and Prediction (2nd ed.). John Wiley & Sons, Chichester.