UN 0701 – Engineering Risk and Reliability
2020 Course –
May 9 & 10, 2020
June 6 & 7, 2020
June 20 & 21, 2020
July 18 & 19, 2020
|Start Time:||9:00 a.m.|
To be delivered 100% online via WebEx
Mahesh Pandey University of Waterloo
2020 Course Information –
The first session for Spring 2020 will be held on May 9 & 10 (Sat/Sun) via WebEx. The start time for the first day is 9:00 am.
Please review the accompanying tutorial if you are not familiar with MS-Excel.
For the most up-to-date Course Material and Information go to http://www.civil.uwaterloo.ca/watrisk/un0701.html
Recordings – https://mcmaster.webex.com/
This course presents a broad treatment of the subject of engineering decision, risk, and reliability. Emphasis is on
the modelling of engineering problems and evaluation of systems performance under conditions of uncertainty;
risk-based approach to life-cycle management of engineering systems;
systematic development of design criteria, explicitly taking into account the significance of uncertainty; and
logical framework for risk assessment and risk-benefit tradeoffs in decision making.
The necessary mathematical concepts are developed in the context of engineering problems. The main topics of discussion are: probability theory, statistical data analysis, component and system reliability concepts, time-dependent reliability analysis, computational methods, life-cycle optimization models and risk management in public policy.
- Risk and Reliability – Basic Concepts
- Data Analysis
- Distributions of Random Variables
- Common Probability Distributions
- Statistical Estimation – Distribution Parameters
- Classical Reliability Theory
- Lifetime Data Analysis
Module 2 – June 6 & 7, 2020
- Multivariate Distributions and Correlation
- Functions of Random Variables
- Monte Carlo Simulation
- Probabilistic Design
Module 3 – June 20 & 21, 2020
- Reliability of Repairable Systems
- Unavailability Analysis
- Degradation Modelling
- Confidence Intervals_R1
- Bayesian Probability
- Bayesian Reliability Analysis
- Uncertainty Analysis
Module 4 – July 18 & 19, 2020
- Overview of PSA
- System Reliability Analysis
- Probabilistic Failure Models
- Fault Tree Analysis
- Common Cause Failure (CCF) Analysis
- Event Tree Analysis
- Reliability and Risk Significance
- Regression Analysis
- Case Study 1 – Valves Reliability
- Microsoft Excel (2007/2010) Tutorial (pdf 0.9 Mb)
Please download the following Excel data files to your laptop, memory stick, etc. to be used in the in-class exercises.
data1.xls (69 Kb)
data2.xls (112 Kb)
data3.xls (36 Kb)
The main reference for the course will be the lecture notes. Additional references for the course are as follows:
- Any Probability and Statistics textbook used in an engineering program (typically at second year level).
- Ang, A.H-S. and W.H. Tang. 2006. Probability Concepts in Engineering: Emphasis on Applications to Civil and Environmental Engineering. John Wiley & Sons, New York.
- Benjamin, J.R. and C.A. Cornell. 1970. Probability, Statistics, and Decision for Civil Engineers. McGraw-Hill, New York.
- Fullwood, R.R. and R.E. Hall. 1988. Probabilistic Risk Assessment in the Nuclear Power Industry: Fundamentals & Applications. Pergamon Press, Oxford.
- McCormick, N.J. 1981. Reliability and Risk Analysis: Methods and Nuclear Power Applications. Academic Press, New York.
- Melchers, R.E. 1999. Structural Reliability Analysis and Prediction (2nd ed.). John Wiley & Sons, Chichester.